The Bundesliga overperformers

Erlang Haaland has already exceeded some players in his career, but this season he has suspended a very particular celebrity: himself.

Its a gimmere, but one that has quite meaningful: how far are the Bundesliga professionals with their goal yield this season removed from their Expected Goals ? Who would have had to achieve much more goals after the KG model, who less?

The model of the expected gates indicates on the basis of numerous factors for each door degree, how big the chance was a gate ( The exact definition is here ). Whoever exceeds his KG value, makes more of its financial statements than the algorithm to expect average; Who misses him, has improvement in the cold brutishness.

Statistically, Haaland would have to stand in six goals — but he already has nine

After eleven playing days this season, it is above all Haaland, who is a real over performer Hervortut: In just six inserts, the straight injured BVB scorer hunter was nine times, according to the KG model would have been only 6.1 goals be desired. No other player can keep up with this difference (+2.9). At the 4: 2 victory against Union Berlin, for example, Haaland from a statistical view had to meet 0.4 times, actually succeeded in a double pack.

Serge Gnabry (six goals; +2.5), Anthony modest (eight gates; +2.4), Two Agonist (seven gates; +2.4) and the three Leverkusen Mousse Diary, Florian With (both four goals; +2,3) and Patrick Schick (eight gates; +1,8) use their opportunities in the previous season conspicuous ice-cold. Gary, for example, like Haaland needs average only 3.3 goals for a goal.

Onside cuts the worst when KG comparison

Conversely, about Lars Still (two gates; -2,1), Andrew Dramatic (two gates; -2,2), Leroy Sané (three goals; -2.3) and Out Authors (three goals; -2.4) Better stand better. They already gave from promising positions. But the most striking underperformer after eleven playing days, however, is the Mainz attacker Karim Onside, who would have to stand in 3.6 goals according to KG, but in truth but first met (at 28 goals shots). With a difference of -2.6 he is in this category of the so far inefficient players of the season.

And Robert Lewandowski? The durable scoring king has already met 13 times again, which is not far away from his KG value: therefore he would have to stand at 11.9 raisers. But it shows that he makes a little more from his already many degrees.